The future of Russia worries not only its citizens, but also those who make their plans to develop relations with this largest state on the planet. Domestic and Western sociologists and politicians are closely studying modern trends in the development of Russia and put forward their forecasts, which often contradict each other.
Demographics of the country: forecasts are disappointing
Quite pessimistic predictions sound about the future demographic situation in Russia. Since the beginning of the 90s of the last century, the country's population has decreased by about seven million people. This trend is likely to continue. The measures taken by the government to stimulate the birth rate and the return to Russia of former citizens currently living in the CIS countries have not yet brought the desired results.
The researchers also consider the rapid aging of the population to be a negative demographic factor. Life expectancy remains at a low level, the general state of health of citizens is deteriorating. If measures are not taken to remedy the situation, in the coming decades the country will experience a shortage of its own labor resources and will face the need to stimulate labor migration from neighboring countries.
The decline of the commodity economy
The nature and development trends of the Russian economy also leave much to be desired. The landmarks of the country's ruling circles are still in the field of extraction and export of raw materials abroad. Oil and gas reserves seem rich and vast, but any sane person clearly understands that they are not unlimited.
According to some estimates, Russia will only have enough oil for two to three decades, if the current production rates remain. We can only guess what will happen to the economy next.
The future of the Russian economy today will largely determine the success of research in the development of new energy sources. If significant breakthroughs occur in this area in the world, Russia's raw materials will no longer be in demand in the West. The main source of replenishment of the Russian budget will disappear. It is another matter if cheap sources of alternative energy are invented and introduced in Russia itself.
The future belongs to science
Economists consider the extremely low innovation and modernization potential of Russia to be a negative factor from the point of view of forecasts. A commodity-driven economy does not need innovation. As a result, Russia will lose all chances of becoming the leader of the world economy, which is focused on high technologies. At best, Russia will become a platform for foreign marketing experiments.
The decisive factor here can only be a sharp increase in the level of education of the population and the restoration of the partially destroyed scientific, technical and industrial sphere.
The government's social policy, pursued over the past two decades, has led to an outflow of intellectual cadres to other countries, where they are in demand. Without the development of its own fundamental and applied science, without a cardinal reform of general and vocational education, Russia will face a bleak future.
